Apgar Score at Birth as a Predictor of Neonatal Death in a Regional Hospital in Northern Peru, 2018–2023
Apgar al nacer como predictor de muerte neonatal en un hospital regional del norte del Perú, 2018-2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57188/Keywords:
Apgar score, positive predictive value, neonatal mortality, perinatal asphyxia.Abstract
Objective: To determine the predictive value of one and five-minute Apgar scores as factors associated with neonatal death (ND) at the JAMO Regional Hospital, Tumbes. Materials and methods: Quantitative, analytical, and cross-sectional study. The sample included 114 records of deceased neonates (2018-2023). Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were used to calculate prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% CI. Results: An Apgar score ≤3 at five minutes predicted a higher risk of early neonatal death (END) with a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 70.0%. Perinatal asphyxia (p<0.001) and eutocic delivery (p=0.036) were significantly associated with severe neonatal depression. Multivariate analysis confirmed that severe depression increases the probability of asphyxia as the underlying cause of death by 2.96 times. Conclusions: The five-minute Apgar score is a robust predictor of early ND, validated as a marker of resuscitation failure. Asphyxia remains a key determinant of fatal outcomes.
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