Comparación entre el Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado (SPI) y el Índice de Evapotranspiración Estandarizado (SPEI) para la sequía agrícola en el valle del Mantaro, Perú
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57188/manglar.2024.037Resumen
La sequía es uno de los principales eventos asociados al cambio climático que afectan el suministro de agua y la producción de alimentos en diferentes lugares y momentos (espacio-temporales) en los Andes Tropicales Peruanos (ATP). Además, los estudios han evidenciado que la sequía está causando un enorme daño a las esferas sociales, económicas y ambientales. Por ello, la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) ha publicado un manual de indicadores e índices de sequía con los métodos más representativos utilizados en el mundo para evaluar los eventos de sequía, pero cada índice tiene una ventaja diferente ya que la variable solicitada y el alcance son diferentes. En ese sentido, este estudio tiene como objetivo comparar el Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación (SPI) y el Índice Estandarizado de Evapotranspiración (SPEI) para la sequía agrícola bajo una consideración espacio-temporal en el ATP, Valle del Mantaro. En primer lugar, el SPI se basa en datos de precipitación, distingue efectivamente entre estaciones húmedas y secas. En segundo lugar, el SPEI toma en consideración los cambios de precipitación y temperatura, lo que conduce a una comprensión del calentamiento global. Se aplicó el SPI y el SPEI a seis estaciones meteorológicas diferentes dentro del Valle del Mantaro con datos entre 1990-2021 bajo un enfoque espacio-temporal. Los resultados muestran principalmente que, el 30% revela características de sequía. Además, el SPEI fue capaz de identificar eventos de sequía mayores en un +-3% para todas las estaciones meteorológicas y aplicando el análisis estadístico Kappa de Cohen, se puede evidenciar una concordancia sustancial pero no perfecta con un valor de no concordancia de +-40%. Finalmente, se recomienda continuar analizando las inundaciones y heladas en las últimas décadas con el propósito de comprender claramente el desarrollo climático para una toma de decisiones informada en la gestión del agua y actividades agrícolas.
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Derechos de autor 2024 Víctor Antonio Ángeles Clemente, Del Piero R. Arana-Ruedas, Steve Dann Camargo Hinostroza, Oketta Onafuje
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
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