Evaluación de la probabilidad de destrucción de áreas de cultivo por inundaciones en el Perú
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17268/manglar.2021.041Resumo
Esta investigación tiene como objetivo estimar la probabilidad de pérdidas (destrucción) de hectáreas agrícolas por inundaciones en función de las hectáreas inundadas. Para ello se utilizó la base de datos de desastres del Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil (INDECI) del Perú para el periodo 2003 – 2017; en donde se realizó un análisis descriptivo de las perdidas agrícolas por inundaciones, luego se construyó una curva que relaciona la probabilidad de pérdida de áreas agrícolas en función de las áreas inundadas, separando la probabilidad en percentiles P0, P33 y P66 para las regiones de costa, selva alta, selva baja y sierra. Los resultados muestran que las inundaciones ocupan el tercer lugar para el promedio anual acumulado de hectáreas perdidas y afectadas en comparación con otros desastres naturales, por otra parte, para las regiones de la costa, selva alta, selva baja y sierra aproximadamente el 20%, 20%, 50% y 15% posee una tasa de destrucción de 0,8 a 1,0 en proporción de ha perdida / ha inundada respectivamente. La bondad de ajuste R2 para los modelos van desde 0,94 hasta 0,995, lo que indica la confiabilidad para la predicción de la probabilidad de hectáreas perdidas por inundaciones en función de las áreas inundadas en las regiones de costa, selva alta, selva baja y sierra del Perú.
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Direitos de Autor (c) 2022 Casiano Aguirre Escalante, David Quispe Janampa, Ricardo Martín Chávez Asencio, Alberto Franco Cerna Cueva, Manuel Emilio Reategui Inga, Beatriz Milagros Vásquez Bendezú
Este trabalho encontra-se publicado com a Licença Internacional Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0.
Manglar is an open access journal distributed under the terms and conditions of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
