Impact of tariff protectionism on country risk and foreign investment

Abstract

The study analyzed the relationship between country risk and tariff protectionism using a multivariate econometric model with annual and monthly data from international organizations. The results showed that an increase in protectionist measures has a positive and significant effect on EMBI index levels, indicating that trade barriers raise investors' perception of risk. Controlling for macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, trade openness, external debt, and real exchange rate, it was observed that protectionism retains its explanatory effect, reinforcing its relevance as a financial determinant. The model achieved a good fit and passed correlation and residual tests, validating its consistency in interpreting the implications of protectionism on economic stability as perceived by markets. These findings provide empirical evidence for the analysis of trade policies from a sovereign financial risk perspective.